Extrapolation at the Campaign/Adset/Ad Level

Extrapolation at the Campaign/Adset/Ad Level

Extrapolation at the Campaign/Adset/Ad Level


Overview


It might be noticed when perusing the Metrics table on the dashboard that Totals may not exactly line up on the Main Account-level dashboard as they might at the Campaign level. This issue actually has a simple reason with an exhaustive explanation, and it is due to the rounding we do when extrapolating values at different levels.

Essentially due to the nature of rounding down (or up, for that instance) the totals will be slightly off when the extrapolated values are summed up at the Campaign level (or the child level, ex. Account -> Campaign, campaign is the child of the Account. Campaign -> Adset, Adset -> Ad, etc.)

For the example below, this is how the math is calculated for each:

Account Level Extrapolation


Total Purchases = Guaranteed New Purchases + Floor(Extrapolated New Purchases (Raw)) + Guaranteed Repeat Purchases + Floor(Extrapolated Repeat Purchases (Raw))
Total Floored by Account Level
= 88 + Floor(38.9291) + 74 + Floor(32.7359)
= 88 + 38 + 74 + 32
= 232
Note: The Raw extrapolated values you see above are not displayed on the dashboard, but their rounded values are. This is because we cannot take credit for 73.58% of a human.


Campaign Level Extrapolation

Total Purchases = (Campaign 1 New Purchases + Floor(Campaign 1 New Extrapolated) + Campaign 1 Repeat Purchases + Floor(Campaign 1 Repeat Extrapolated)) + (Campaign 2 ...) ... 
Total Floored by Campaign Level
      = 17 + Floor(7.5204) + 21 + Floor(9.2899) + 22 + Floor(9.7322) + 13 + Floor(5.7509) + 19 + Floor(8.4051) + 12 + Floor(5.3085)
          + 14 + Floor(6.1932) + 20 + Floor(8.8475) + 16 + Floor(7.0780) + 8 + Floor(3.5390)
      = 17 + 7 + 21 + 9 + 22 + 9 + 13 + 5 + 19 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 14 + 6 + 20 + 8 + 16 + 7 + 8 + 3
      = 229 

Note: The New and Repeat Purchases in the above calculation are not listed on the table below


Explanation


Above we can see why the totals may be different, and this can happen at any level between Account/Campaign/Adset/Ad.

However, if we didn't round these values off, they would come out to equal one another.

Total Purchases = Guaranteed New Purchases + Extrapolated New Purchases (Raw) + Guaranteed Repeat Purchases + Extrapolated Repeat Purchases (Raw)
Total by Account Level
      = 88 + 38.9291 + 74 + 32.7359
      = 233.665
Total Purchases = (Campaign 1 New Purchases + Campaign 1 New Extrapolated + Campaign 1 Repeat Purchases + Campaign 1 Repeat Extrapolated) + (Campaign 2 ...) ... 
Total by Campaign Level
      = 17 + 7.5204 + 21 + 9.2899 + 22 + 9.7322 + 13 + 5.7509 + 19 + 8.4051 + 12 + 5.3085 + 14 + 6.1932 + 20 + 8.8475 + 16 + 7.0780 + 8 + 3.5390
      = 233.665 

Mathematically, the more times we round the calculation (whether down/up, it does not matter), the further from the "parent level", whether it be account/campaign/adset, the farther from its parent's total it becomes. 

Alas, flooring is done during extrapolation to prevent from taking credit for a "half of a person", but as a result this is what comes of it.

If you are curious in a more in-depth analysis of the math above, be sure to checkout our Extrapolation Calculation article first, and then below i will show you how these formulas are slightly tweaked by different levels

Math Proof


Account Level:

Match Rate: 0.6933
MM New Conversions: 550
MM Repeat Conversions: 337

Matched New Conversions = MM New Conversions * Match Rate = 550 * .6933 = 381.315
Unmatched New = MM New Conversions - Matched New Conversions = 550 - 381.315 = 168.685
New Attribution Rate = FB New Attributed / Matched New Conversions = 88 / 381.315 = 0.2308
Extrapolated New = Unmatched New * New Attribution Rate = 168.685 * 0.2308 = 38.9291 ~= 38

Matched Repeat Conversions = MM Repeat Conversions * Match Rate = 337 * .6933 = 233.6421
Unmatched Repeat = MM Repeat Conversions - Matched Repeat Conversions = 337 - 233.6421 = 103.3579
Repeat Attribution Rate = FB Repeat Attributed / Matched Repeat Conversions = 74 / 233.6421 = 0.3167
Extrapolated Repeat = Unmatched Repeat * Repeat Attribution Rate = 103.3579 * 0.3167 = 32.7359 ~= 32

Total Floored by Account Level = 88 + 74 + 38 + 32 = 232
Total Unfloored by Account Level = 88 + 74 + 38.9291 + 32.7359 = 233.665

Campaign Level: 

Note: New/Repeat not shown on campaigns table, but showing below for sake of example

Attribution totals:

Campaign Number: Total guaranteed (before extrapolation) = new guaranteed (before extrapolation) + repeat guaranteed (before extrapolation)

1: 38 = 17 + 21
2: 35 = 22 + 13
3: 31 = 19 + 12
4: 34 = 14 + 20
6: 24 = 16 + 8

Note: We use the same formulas as above, the only number we change is the number attributed

Campaign 1:

Matched New Conversions = MM New Conversions * Match Rate = 550 * .6933 = 381.315
Unmatched New = MM New Conversions - Matched New Conversions = 550 - 381.315 = 168.685
New Attribution Rate = FB New Attributed / Matched New Conversions = 17 / 381.315 = 0.0445
Extrapolated New = Unmatched New * New Attribution Rate = 168.685 * 0.0445 = 7.5204 ~= 7

Matched Repeat Conversions = MM Repeat Conversions * Match Rate = 337 * .6933 = 233.6421
Unmatched Repeat = MM Repeat Conversions - Matched Repeat Conversions = 337 - 233.6421 = 103.3579
Repeat Attribution Rate = FB Repeat Attributed / Matched Repeat Conversions = 21 / 233.6421 = 0.0898
Extrapolated Repeat = Unmatched Repeat * Repeat Attribution Rate = 103.3579 * 0.0898 = 9.2899 ~= 9

For the rest we can condense: Extrapolated (New/Repeat) = Unmatched * (FB Campaign Converted New or Repeat / Matched New or Repeat Conversions)

Campaign 2:

Extrapolated New = 168.685 * 22 / 381.315 = 9.7322 ~= 9
Extrapolated Repeat = 103.3579 * 13 / 233.6421 = 5.7509 ~= 5

Campaign 3:

Extrapolated New = 168.685 * 19 / 381.315 = 8.4051 ~= 8
Extrapolated Repeat = 103.3579 * 12 / 233.6421 = 5.3085 ~= 5

Campaign 4:

Extrapolated New = 168.685 * 14 / 381.315 = 6.1932 ~= 6
Extrapolated Repeat = 103.3579 * 20 / 233.6421 = 8.8475 ~= 8

Campaign 6:

Extrapolated New = 168.685 * 16 / 381.315 = 7.0780 ~= 7
Extrapolated Repeat = 103.3579 * 8 / 233.6421 = 3.5390 ~= 3

Total Floored by Campaign = 17 + 7 + 21 + 9 + 22 + 9 + 13 + 5 + 19 + 8 + 12 + 5 + 14 + 6 + 20 + 8 + 16 + 7 + 8 + 3 = 229
Total Unfloored By Campaign = 17 + 7.5204 + 21 + 9.2899 + 22 + 9.7322 + 13 + 5.7509 + 19 + 8.4051 + 12 + 5.3085 + 14 + 6.1932 + 20 + 8.8475 + 16 + 7.0780 + 8 + 3.5390 = 233.665


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